The Long Game: China, the U.S., and Vietnam’s Strategic Balancing Act

The world is entering a new era of great-power competition, with the United States and China locked in a contest over global influence. This is not just about trade wars or military tensions—it is a deeper struggle over the shape of the international order. Will the 21st century continue to be defined by U.S. leadership, or will China’s growing economic and political clout create a new global structure?

Rush Doshi’s The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order provides a compelling framework to understand Beijing’s long-term ambitions. He argues that China has carefully planned its rise in three phases: first, quietly building strength; then, gradually reducing U.S. influence; and now, actively shaping a China-centered global system.

For Vietnam, a country historically positioned between major powers, this evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. As an emerging economy with deep ties to both China and the U.S., Vietnam must navigate this delicate balance with strategic foresight, ensuring economic prosperity and regional stability while fostering cooperation with all partners.

China’s Long-Term Strategy: A Systematic Ascent

For decades, many in the West assumed that integrating China into the global economy would lead to greater political liberalization and alignment with U.S.-led institutions. However, Doshi argues that from the very beginning, China had a different vision—one that was not about adapting to the existing world order but about gradually shaping a new one.

From 1989 to 2008, China followed Deng Xiaoping’s principle: “Hide your strength, bide your time.” This period was about economic growth, military modernization, and technological advancement while avoiding direct confrontation. China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 was a turning point, allowing it to expand its global economic footprint.

After the 2008 financial crisis, China reassessed its position. Seeing weaknesses in the Western economic system, it moved into a phase of "blunting" U.S. influence, expanding its economic presence through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and increasing its role in international organizations.

Since 2016, China has entered its final phase—actively building a China-centered world order. This includes:

• Expanding alternative financial institutions (e.g., the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, AIIB).
• Promoting its technology ecosystem (e.g., Huawei, 5G expansion, and AI development).
• Strengthening regional leadership through trade agreements and diplomatic engagements.

China’s goal is not to isolate itself but to create a global system where it plays a central role—one that complements its economic, political, and strategic objectives.

The U.S. Response: A Shift from Engagement to Strategic Competition

For years, Washington operated under the assumption that economic engagement with China would lead to greater global integration. However, as China’s strategic ambitions became clearer, the U.S. shifted its approach.

Under recent administrations, the U.S. has strengthened regional alliances, invested in domestic industrial policies, and restricted China’s access to key technologies. This includes:

• The Quad alliance (U.S., Japan, India, Australia), aimed at strengthening cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
• The AUKUS security partnership (U.S., UK, Australia), focused on military and technological collaboration.
• Tech restrictions on AI, semiconductors, and other critical sectors to maintain an edge in innovation.

The shift in U.S. policy reflects a broader realization that China is not merely competing in individual sectors—it is working toward a comprehensive reordering of global power.

Vietnam’s Position: Strategic Balance Amidst Global Shifts

Vietnam finds itself in a unique position. As a close neighbor of China and a strategic partner of the U.S., Vietnam must navigate this complex landscape while prioritizing national interests, economic growth, and regional peace.

Vietnam’s economic ties with both superpowers are deep and crucial. The U.S. is one of Vietnam’s largest export markets, fueling its manufacturing boom. At the same time, China remains Vietnam’s largest trading partner, supplying essential materials for its industries. Maintaining stable relations with both is not just a policy choice—it is an economic necessity.

Recent years have also seen Vietnam emerge as a key destination for global supply chains. As companies look for alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, Vietnam has become an increasingly attractive hub for investment. This transition strengthens Vietnam’s economy, but it also means carefully managing relations with both Washington and Beijing.

Vietnam’s Strategy: Stability, Cooperation, and Development

Vietnam’s approach to global affairs has long been one of independence, multilateralism, and peaceful cooperation. This strategy allows Vietnam to engage with major powers while maintaining its sovereignty and regional stability.

Vietnam continues to invest in:

• Economic Diversification: Expanding trade agreements, including the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), to broaden its economic partnerships.
• Technological Advancement: Strengthening digital infrastructure and innovation to enhance economic resilience.
• Regional Cooperation: Working through ASEAN and other multilateral institutions to promote diplomatic solutions in the Indo-Pacific.

Vietnam’s foreign policy remains rooted in the principle of “Four No’s”:

1. No military alliances.
2. No foreign military bases on Vietnamese territory.
3. No siding with one country against another.
4. No using force or threatening force in international relations.

This approach allows Vietnam to engage with both China and the U.S. while avoiding entanglements in great-power conflicts.

The Road Ahead: Vietnam’s Future in a Shifting Global Order

As U.S.-China competition continues to unfold, Vietnam must remain adaptable and forward-thinking. Three key areas will shape its future trajectory:

1. Sustaining Economic Growth through Diversified Partnerships
   Vietnam should continue expanding trade beyond the U.S. and China to build resilience against global shocks. Deepening ties with Europe, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN neighbors will ensure long-term stability.

2. Advancing Innovation and Digital Transformation
   With increasing competition in semiconductors, AI, and advanced manufacturing, Vietnam has an opportunity to position itself as a regional tech leader. Investing in education, R&D, and digital infrastructure will be crucial.

3. Strengthening Multilateral Engagement
   Vietnam should continue playing an active role in ASEAN, the United Nations, and global trade organizations to shape a rules-based international order. By promoting dialogue, cooperation, and regional stability, Vietnam can remain a bridge between major powers.

Conclusion: A Future of Strategic Adaptation

Vietnam has long demonstrated an ability to balance major power relations while pursuing national development. As the U.S.-China rivalry deepens, this balancing act becomes even more critical. By maintaining economic openness, advancing technological capabilities, and fostering multilateral cooperation, Vietnam can secure its place as a stable and prosperous nation in an evolving global order.

The world is changing, but Vietnam’s commitment to independence, diplomacy, and innovation ensures that it remains not just a spectator, but an active and influential participant in shaping the future.